IEA 2026: recycling capacity grows before end-of-life battery supply catches up
Manufacturing scrap remains a major recycling input while end-of-life supply develops later.
Source facts
IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 describes current recycling as relying mainly on manufacturing scrap, with end-of-life batteries expected to become dominant around the mid-2030s. It identifies an approximately 15-year structural lag between battery demand growth and substantial end-of-life feedstock.
The report places more than 85% of global battery-recycling capacity in China, while most recyclers globally still face feedstock shortages. This global assessment does not establish supply timing or quantities for an individual Chinese project.